Horn of Africa Braces for Persistent Heavy Rains Until June, Says IGAD Weather Service

The Climate Prediction and Applications Center (ICPAC) of the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), a regional bloc, announced on Tuesday that a significant portion of the Horn of Africa region is anticipated to experience above-average rainfall from April to June.

According to ICPAC’s latest forecast, the equatorial and northern sectors of the region are expected to receive more rainfall than usual during this period.

ICPAC stated, “There is a high likelihood of above-average rainfall over equatorial and northeastern regions of the area from April to June, with certain areas in western Ethiopia and western South Sudan predicted to be drier than normal.”

This rainfall pattern will follow a period of heavy rains during the March-May season, which has already led to fatalities and extensive flooding in countries like Kenya.

In addition to the increased precipitation, the Nairobi-based institution highlighted that the region will also experience higher temperatures than usual.

“Temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal across the entire region, with the highest probabilities in Sudan, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, and coastal areas of Somalia, Kenya, and Tanzania,” stated ICPAC.

Over the past year, the Horn of Africa region has witnessed diverse climatic conditions, including alternating periods of drought and heavy rainfall, as the impacts of climate change continue to unfold.

According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), between October and December 2023, flooding resulting from El Niño rains claimed the lives of 479 individuals and affected over 5.2 million people in Kenya, Somalia, Uganda, Burundi, and Ethiopia.

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