The war in Gaza has persisted for six months, testing the resolve of Israel’s allies. With casualties mounting in the enclave, it’s evident that Israel lacks a clear strategy to end the conflict or navigate its aftermath.
The steadfast pursuit of Hamas in Gaza, despite dire humanitarian consequences, is isolating Israel on the world stage, with mounting pressure on its government from various quarters.
Numerous international organizations have cautioned against potential genocide by Israel, leading even its closest allies to openly criticize Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Calls to cease arms shipments to Israel are gaining momentum in the United States and the United Kingdom.
Simultaneously, Netanyahu’s administration faces growing domestic unrest, with sizable protests demanding his resignation.
Israel initiated the conflict following the October 7 terror attacks by Hamas, setting objectives to eliminate Hamas and secure the release of hostages. However, six months later, neither goal has materialized.
While the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) claim to have neutralized thousands of Hamas fighters, the group’s top leadership in Gaza, notably Yayha Sinwar, remains elusive. Although a truce deal with Hamas in late November secured the release of over 100 hostages, approximately 130, including 99 believed to be alive, are still held in Gaza.
Meanwhile, the toll on Palestinians is devastating: over 33,000 deaths, including thousands of children, and more than 75,000 injuries have been reported by the Gaza Ministry of Health since October 7. Additionally, over a million people face imminent famine due to severe food shortages.
“This conflict has exceeded all expectations in terms of duration, intensity, and casualties, with no end in sight,” remarked Khaled Elgindy, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
Despite pressure, Netanyahu remains resolute. While he committed to increasing aid to Gaza following an ultimatum from US President Joe Biden, he rejected calls for a humanitarian ceasefire and a reassessment of plans to invade Rafah, where over a million civilians seek refuge.
“There is no viable plan for Gaza’s future, not even for the present. The duration and conclusion of this war remain uncertain,” commented Elgindy.
Absence of Exit Strategy: Experts argue that Israel faces an untenable situation, given its goal of eliminating Hamas, which is domestically popular but unattainable. Hamas’ entrenched influence in Gaza, controlling governance, security, and social systems, renders Israel’s objective unrealistic.
“This conflict has highlighted the futility of eradicating Hamas, given its deep societal roots and popularity,” stated Nathan Thrall, an expert on the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Israel’s inability to achieve its objectives leaves it with limited options: prolonged occupation, unpopular among Israelis, or withdrawal, potentially empowering Hamas.
“Continued Israeli military presence or empowering Hamas are the only feasible outcomes,” noted Thrall.
Furthermore, plans to dismantle Hamas are deemed impractical, as they overlook the enduring support for the group and the consequences of its destruction.
Political Landscape: Despite internal divisions, the majority of Israelis support the Gaza war, fueled by trauma from past attacks. However, Elgindy cautioned against allowing emotions to dictate policy, urging international intervention to halt the conflict.
The death toll among Israeli soldiers surpassing 250 underscores the gravity of the situation, though overshadowed by Palestinian casualties.
Lack of Future Plans: Israel’s lack of a coherent strategy strains relations with allies, who doubt its capability to navigate post-war challenges effectively.
“The absence of a strategic plan for Gaza’s future undermines trust in Israel among its allies,” remarked Harel Chorev, a researcher at Tel Aviv University.
Netanyahu’s proposal for Gaza’s post-Hamas era, emphasizing demilitarization and border closure, has drawn opposition from key stakeholders, complicating diplomatic efforts.
The refusal to consider alternative proposals exacerbates the impasse, hindering prospects for a sustainable resolution.
In conclusion, the complexities of the Gaza conflict demand a nuanced approach, with a focus on humanitarian concerns and diplomatic initiatives to secure a lasting peace.”
